李宝德, 兰蓉, 刘洋. 浅析新疆经济的各产业发展是否均衡[J]. Journal of Xinjiang University (Natural Science Edition in Chinese and English), 2014, 31(1): 40-43.DOI:
浅析新疆经济的各产业发展是否均衡
摘要
本文对1990—2012年的新疆生产总值及三产总值数据做了统计分析
建立了新疆地区生产总值与三产生产总值关于年份的指数回归方程
通过对方程进行显著性统计分析
得知第一产业和第三产业发展均衡
但二者均在新疆经济平均发展水平之下
第二产业发展迅速
高于平均水平
占地区生产总值比重较大.若新疆经济的发展模式不变
根据回归方程预计五年后
即2017年新疆地区生产总值达到1.6万亿
一产总值达到0.24万亿
二产总值0.88万亿
三产总值0.54万亿
二产总值达到地区生产总值的一半以上
三者发展极不均衡
出现较大差异.当地政府应该采取相应的措施保持新疆经济的基本平衡.
Abstract
In this paper
we make a statistical analysis on the GDP data of Xinjiang Province of China during 1990—2012
and then the index equations for the economy of Xinjiang are established.By a significant statistical analysis
we obtain that the development speed of the primary industry and tertiary industry keeps equilibrium
but both are below the average development level of economy in Xinjiang
the second industry development is rapid
above average GDP proportion.If Xinjiang economic development model is constant
according to the regression equation
in 2007
after five years
Xinjiang regional GDP will reach nearly 1.6 trillion
the production value of the first industries will be 0.24 trillion
secundiparity gross comes up to 0.88 trillion
the tertiary industry will be 0.54 trillion
secundiparity gross reached more than half of GDP
the development levels of the three industries in Xinjiang will be unequal.The local government should take some corresponding policies to balance the economic development of Xinjiang.