新疆气象研究所
纸质出版:1991
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[1]王承义.北疆东部近500年来温度变化及其趋势研究[J].新疆大学学报(自然科学版),1991(01):90-96.
王承义. 北疆东部近500年来温度变化及其趋势研究[J]. Journal of Xinjiang University (Natural Science Edition in Chinese and English), 1991, (1).
本文通过对年轮年表与温度的相关分析
建立了近500年来北疆东部冷暖变化序列
并利用历史记载、冰川进退等资料进行了验证
且运用冷暖序例进行了小冰期的年代测定并较详细地研究了气温与降水分布特征。依此本文计算了冰期进退中冷暖变化对近500年均值偏差百分率
还进行了冰期进退规律和变化特征的对比研究。对近500年冷暖变化周期、频率、振幅、变暖趋势等冷暖变化特征进行了分析
对本世纪末、下世纪初近20年的冷暖变化趋势进行了尝试性预测。
In this paper
temperature series for last 500-years in the east of northern Xinjiang is reconstruct ed by means of corelation analysis between tree-ring chronologies and temperature
and tested by his torical glacial data and so on
and the stages of little Ice Age are determined by using the series. Also
the distribution of temperature and precipitation is studied
the percentage of divided values deviations are calculated
which apperance while glacier advance of retreat
from the period mean of 500 years
the glacial development and its change regular are researched. Finaly
we discuss the cold-warm change characteristics
such as period
fraqueney
amplitute
tendency etc.
and try to predict the eli marie change trend for 20 years in the future.
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