李晓东, 舒强, 钟巍, et al. 南疆铁路沿线区域人口发展和城镇化水平预测[J]. Journal of Xinjiang University (Natural Science Edition in Chinese and English), 2001, (1).DOI：
南疆铁路沿线区域人口发展和城镇化水平预测
摘要
根据南疆铁路沿线四地州人口发展过程和人口现状与城镇化水平现状
采用联合国人口基金提供的 People人口预测软件和大型统计软件 SPSS
以及联合国人口司推荐的用于预测世界各国城市人口的方法
简称为 U RGD法
以 1998年的统计数据为基础对区域的人口发展和城镇化水平进行了预测
到 2 0 15年南疆铁路沿线地州人口将达到 887万人
城镇化水平将达到 37%
随后又对预测的意义进行了探讨
提出了人口发展规划和城镇化水平目标规划
并为规划的实现提出了几点主要的保障措施 .
Abstract
According to development course and current situation of population and status quo of urbanization level in the region along railway of southern Xinjiang
the author applies the PEOPLE software and the large statistics software SPSS and the method of URGD to forecast the development of population and the level of urbanization in the region on the base of statistical data from 1998.The population will reach 8.87 million
and the level of urbanization will reach 37% in 2015.Then the author probes into the significance of such forecast
puts forward the programs of the population development and the urbanization level in the region
and tries to advance some safeguard measurement aim at realization of such program.
京公网安备11010802024621