1951—2016年新疆哈密极端气温变化研究

张志高; 苗运玲; 邱双娟; 耿益新; 姬曼琪

doi:10.13568/j.cnki.651094.2019.01.013

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

1951—2016年新疆哈密极端气温变化研究

生态资源环境 | 更新时间：2026-01-21

- 1951—2016年新疆哈密极端气温变化研究
- 1951—2016年新疆哈密极端气温变化研究
- 新疆大学学报（自然科学版中英文） 2019年36卷第1期页码：89-97
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院
  2. 新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目(41602366);河南省科技计划项目(182102311111)
- DOI：10.13568/j.cnki.651094.2019.01.013
  中图分类号： P423
- 纸质出版：2019
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
[1]张志高,苗运玲,邱双娟,等.1951—2016年新疆哈密极端气温变化研究[J],2019,36(01):89-97.
[1]张志高,苗运玲,邱双娟,等.1951—2016年新疆哈密极端气温变化研究[J],2019,36(01):89-97. DOI： 10.13568/j.cnki.651094.2019.01.013.

DOI：10.13568/j.cnki.651094.2019.01.013.

摘要

基于哈密国家基准气象站1951—2016年逐日最高温、最低温和平均气温等资料

运用线性回归、趋势分析、Mann—Kendall检验和主成分分析等方法对哈密极端气温变化特征进行了分析.结果表明:66年来哈密市气温暖化趋势明显

年均最高温增温速率快于年均最低温

增温速率分别为年均温(0.15?C/10a)

Abstract

Based on the climatic data of daily average

maximum and minimum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administration at meteorological station in Hami during 1951—2016

the methods of linear regression

trend analysis

Mann-Kendall test and principal component analysis were employed to analyze the characteristics of extreme temperature in Hami from 1951 to 2016. The results show that: in general

the trend of temperature warming in Hami was obvious in the past 66 years

with generally stronger increases in average annual maximum temperature than in average annual minimum temperature

as for climate inclination rate was average temperature(0.15?C/10 a) < lowest temperature(0.16?C/10 a) < highest temperature(0.28?C/10 a) respectively. The occurrence of warm days

warm nights

summer days

warm spell duration days and growing season length all showed a significant increasing trend

and the number of hot nights showed an upward trend after 1996.The average annual diurnal temperature range increased at a rate of 0.11?C/10 a.While the frequency of cold days

cold nights

frost days

ice days and cold spell duration days was found to have a significantly downward trend. The extreme low value of the maximum temperature and the extreme low value of the minimum temperature showed an upward trend

the extreme high value of the maximum temperature and the extreme high value of the minimum temperature showed a downward trend.The Mann-Kendall test showed that the extreme temperature index in Hami changed abruptly in the1950 s and early 1960 s. The principal component analysis classified the extreme temperature index in Hami into four categories.The correlation analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between the warm indices and between the cold indices

and a significant negative correlation between the warm indices and the cold indices.

关键词

Keywords

references

IPCC. Climate change 2013:The physical science basis, the summary for policymakers of the working group I contribution to the fifth assessment report[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,2013.

第二次气候变化国家评估报告编写委员会.第二次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.Committee of “The Second China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change”. The Second China’s national assessment report on climate change[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2011.

任国玉,郭军,初子莹,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报, 2005, 63(6):942-956.Ren Guoyu,Guo Jun, Chu Ziying, et al. Climate changes of china’s mainland over the past half century[J].Acta MeteorologicaSinica, 2005,63(6):942-956.

Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs J, et al. Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis[M]. New York:Cambridge University Press, 2001.

Richard R H. An overview of weather and climate extremes-productsand trends[J]. Weather&Climate Extremes, 2015, 10:1-9.

丁裕国.探讨灾害规律的理论基础-极端气候事件概率[J].气象与减灾研究, 2006, 29(1):44-50.Ding Yuguo. Theoretical basis for discussing disciplinarian-The probability of extreme climate event[J]. Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research, 2006,29(1):44-50.

Karl T R, Kulda G, Razuvayev V N, et al. Global warming:Evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change[J].Geophysical Research letters, 1991(18):2253-2256.

Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C, et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2006, 111(D5):1042-1063.

任国玉,封国林,严中伟.中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望[J].气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(4):337-353.Ren Guoyu, Feng Guolin, Yan Zhongwei. Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research,2010,15(4):337-353.

Wang B L, Zhang M J, Wei J L, et al. Changes in extreme events of temperature and precipitation overXinjiang, northwest China, during 19602009[J]. Quaternary International, 2013, 298:141-151.

慈晖,张强,张江辉,等. 1961—2010年新疆极端气温时空演变特征研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 54(4):129-138.Ci Hui, Zhang Qiang, Zhang Jianghui, et al. Spatiotemproal variations of extreme temperature events over Xinjiang during1961-2010[J].Acta ScientiarumNaturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 2015,54(4):129-138.

Deng H J, Chen Y N, Shi X, et al. Dynamics of temperature and precipitation extremes and their spatial variation in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2014, 138:346-355.

古丽扎提·哈布肯,赵景波.新疆阿勒泰地区近50年来极端气温与降水变化[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2011, 25(7):112-116.Gulzat Habiken, Zhaojingbo. Changes of temperature and precipitation in Altay region, Xinjiang in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(7):112-116.

段峥嵘,祖拜代·木依布拉,夏建新.新疆阿克苏地区潜在蒸散量时空演变及驱动因素[J].新疆大学学报(自然科学版),2018, 35(4):493-512.Duan Zhengrong, Zubaidai Muyibula, Xia Jianxin. Variation characteristics and influence factors of potential evapotranspiration in Aksu region[J].J Xinjiang Univ(Natural Sci Ed),2018,35(4):493-512.

张志高,苗运玲,刘青利,等.新疆哈密市近62年气温变化特征分析[J].新疆大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 34(3):339-344.Zhang zhigao, Miao yunling, Liu qingli, et al. Analysis on the temperature change characteristics in Hami of Xinjiang in resent 62 years[J]. J Xinjiang Univ(Natural Sci Ed), 2017,34(3):339-344.

邢芝芳,杨艳玲,王军. 1960—2008年新疆哈密地区的气温变化分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象, 2011, 5(1):25-28.Xing zhifang, Yang yanling, Wang jun. Analysis on the temperature changes of Hami Area in Xinjiang during 1960-2008[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2011,5(1):63-69.

张科,苗运玲.近64a来哈密绿洲气候变化特征分析[J].气候变化研究快报, 2016, 5(1):63-69.Zhang ke, Miao yunling. Analysis on the Characteristics of Climate Change in Hami Oasis in Recent 64 Years[J] Climate Change Research Letters, 2016,5(1):63-69.

冯瑶,张科.新疆哈密地区近54年极端气温变化特征分析[J].气候变化研究快报, 2016, 5(1):34-40.Feng yao, Zhang ke. Analysis on the characteristics of extreme temperature variation in recent 54 years in Hami area of Xinjiang[J].Climate Change Research Letters, 2016,5(1):34-40.

Wang X L,Wen Q H,Wu Y. Penalized maximal T-test for detectingundocumented mean change in climate data series[J].Journalof Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2007,46(6):916-931.

魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 2版.北京:气象出版社, 2007.Wei fengying. Modern climate statistical diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.

汪宝龙. 1960—2009年新疆极端气温和降水事件的变化研究[D].兰州:西北师范大学, 2013.Wang baolong. Study in extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang, northwest China during 1960-2009[D].Lanzhou:Northwest Normal University, 2013.

You Q L, Kang S C, Aguilar E, et al. Changes in daily climateextremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmosphericcirculation during1961-2003[J].Climate Dynamics,2011,36(11/12):2399-2417.

Donat MG. Alexander Global Land-Based Datasets for Monitoring Climatic Extremes[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2013, 94(7):997-1006.

浏览量

219

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

暂无数据