两种不同方法下的矿井涌水量预测对比分析

褚双燕; 王中美; 王亚维

doi:10.13568/j.cnki.651094.2019.01.015

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两种不同方法下的矿井涌水量预测对比分析

工程技术 | 更新时间：2026-01-21

- 两种不同方法下的矿井涌水量预测对比分析
- 两种不同方法下的矿井涌水量预测对比分析
- 新疆大学学报（自然科学版中英文） 2019年36卷第1期页码：106-113
- 作者机构：
  
  贵州大学资源与环境工程学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金(41702270);贵州省科技计划项目联合基金(黔科合LH字[2017]7284);贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合支撑[2017]2858);贵州省自然科学基金项目(黔科合J字[2014]2069);贵州省水利厅科技专项经费项目(KT201506);贵州大学2017年度学术新苗培养及创新探索专项(黔科合平台人才[2017]5788)
- DOI：10.13568/j.cnki.651094.2019.01.015
  中图分类号： TD742
- 纸质出版：2019
- 稿件说明：
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[1]褚双燕,王中美,王亚维.两种不同方法下的矿井涌水量预测对比分析[J],2019,36(01):106-113.
[1]褚双燕,王中美,王亚维.两种不同方法下的矿井涌水量预测对比分析[J],2019,36(01):106-113. DOI： 10.13568/j.cnki.651094.2019.01.015.

DOI：10.13568/j.cnki.651094.2019.01.015.

摘要

水文地质参数影响矿井涌水

而在岩溶山区矿山中

含水介质的非均质性、各向异性特别突出

水文地质参数的获取难度很大.因此

文章以弱化水文地质参数的依赖性为目标

应用相关分析和灰色系统理论模型对老鹰山煤矿1995—2013年的矿井涌水量进行拟合

建立了回归方程模型和GM(1

1)模型

并利用2014—2016年数据对模型预测结果进行了验证.结果表明相关分析中老鹰山煤矿矿井涌水量与降雨量密切相关

Abstract

The hydrogeological parameters affect the mine water inflow

but in the karst mountain mines

the heterogeneity and anisotropy of the aqueous medium are particularly prominent

and the acquisition of hydrogeological parameters is very difficult

aiming at weakening the dependence of hydrogeological parameters. The correlation analysis and grey system theory model were used to fit the mine water inflow from1995 to 2013 in the Eagle Mountain coal mine. The regression equation model and the GM(1

1) model were established

and the data from 2014 to 2016 were used to verify the prediction results of the model. The results show that correlation analysis of Laoyingshan coal mine water inrush and rainfall is closely related

the correlation coefficient is 0.835

the model curve shows the change in the morphology of the forecast

the accuracy of the prediction model of 87.19%; gray system GM(1

1) prediction model The accuracy is 82.34%

which is suitable for the simulation

control and prediction of geological data with grey features. The model curve shows the prediction of change trends; the correlation analysis method has higher prediction accuracy than the grey theory method. The research results provide reliable technical support for the prevention of mine gushing in the karst mountainous area.

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references

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