恐慌情绪与虚假信息双传播网络建模与仿真

于凯; 宿天睿

doi:10.13568/j.cnki.651094.651316.2022.03.23.0003

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恐慌情绪与虚假信息双传播网络建模与仿真

更新时间：2026-01-21

- 恐慌情绪与虚假信息双传播网络建模与仿真
- Journal of Xinjiang University (Natural Science Edition in Chinese and English) Vol. 40, Issue 1, Pages: 79-86(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 新疆财经大学信息管理学院
  2. 新疆财经大学公共管理学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13568/j.cnki.651094.651316.2022.03.23.0003
  CLC： O157.5;G206
- Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
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[1]于凯,宿天睿.恐慌情绪与虚假信息双传播网络建模与仿真[J].新疆大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文),2023,40(01):79-86.
[1]于凯,宿天睿.恐慌情绪与虚假信息双传播网络建模与仿真[J].新疆大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文),2023,40(01):79-86. DOI： 10.13568/j.cnki.651094.651316.2022.03.23.0003.

DOI：10.13568/j.cnki.651094.651316.2022.03.23.0003.

摘要

考虑个体犹豫机制、自净率以及停止率等因素对传播的影响，同时引入个体情绪，构建一种个体情绪与虚假信息的SEIR(Susceptible(易感者)-Exposed(潜伏者)-Infected(感染者)-Removed(康复者))双层传播模型．利用数学分析给出平均场方程，在此基础上推导出虚假信息与恐慌情绪的传播阈值，继而通过仿真模拟和实证分析进行验证．实验结果表明：虚假信息的传播较易引发恐慌情绪，恐慌情绪的出现增加了虚假信息影响的深度和广度；仅通过控制虚假信息的传播来抑制恐慌可能会适得其反．传播阈值是抑制虚假信息和恐慌情绪传播的关键，且阈值变化在很小范围内即可有效控制传播．

Abstract

Studying the interaction and evolution of false information and panic in the process of information dissemination is of great value for public opinion governance. This paper considers the influence of individual hesitation mechanism

self purification rate and stop rate on communication

and introduces individual emotion to construct an SEIR double-layer communication model of individual emotion and false information. The mean field equation is given by mathematical analysis. On this basis

the propagation threshold of false information and panic is derived

and then verified by simulation and empirical analysis. The results show that the spread of false information is more likely to cause panic

and the emergence of panic increases the depth and breadth of the impact of false information; It may be counterproductive to suppress panic by controlling the spread of false information only. The propagation threshold is the key to suppress the spread of false information and panic

and the value change can be effectively controlled within a small range.

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